If the bet amounts of each outcome are proportional to the inverse of the odds, the bookies win a “commission” of (1-0.9781)=0.0215=2.15% of the total amount bet. This way, the bookies pay less than they receive through the bets of the users.
It is called the vig (or vigorish), juice, margin or overround. Atlético de Madrid to win = 1/ 3.77= 0.265īut, wait, if we sum 0.478+0.279+0.265=1.022 > 1, and I remember that the sum of all the possible outcomes of a match should be equal to 1….In the following football match between “Real Madrid” and “Atlético de Madrid” (odds taken saturday 11th, 17:16): We can approximate the probabilities with the formula:
To explain the usefulness of this calculator and why it is a MUST in any value betting strategy, let’s start at the beginning.
The lower odds, the higher probability, and vice versa. As you know, (and if not, you should), the betting odds are related to the probabilities of each outcome.
